Calibration so far (who is closer to the truth)
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What this is. sinapsi.wiki is a verified wiki-memory system, queryable by AI assistants too. This page is the result of running it on a test domain: the forecasts are produced by an automated system, with no human hand steering the conclusions, and an automated system can be wrong. No real money, no open positions. It is an analysis test, not financial advice and not an invitation to bet or trade. Contact: mario.brosco@salesmart.it.
How it works, no tricks. The forecasts come from the public geopolitical forecasting wiki, a verified memory of facts, objective signals and theses already proven wrong. On July 12, 2026 we froze the prices of 23 Polymarket markets and produced our forecasts blind to price (without looking at what the market was quoting). We bet nothing, there is no money at stake: we only record the data and follow the outcomes. The market is ground truth; the verdict is how calibrated we are, the Brier score, as the markets resolve. If we're wrong, you'll see it here.
For each contract: where the market price stood on July 12 and where our forecast stood. The gap is the thesis. The dotted line is today's price. Sorted by divergence. Click for the method.
Sinapsi's public wikis are free, verified, ad-free. This experiment, like the wikis, we keep up to show that a verified memory is worth it. If it helps you, chip in: contribute whatever you want.
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