⚡ Gas forecasts, an experiment with sinapsi.wiki

Literal criterion: Resolves YES if the settlement of the TTF front-month contract (ICE Endex) on 30/09/2026 is > €45,00/MWh. Resolution source: official ICE/tradingeconomics settlement.

How we read it: Resolves YES if the official ICE Endex settlement of the TTF front-month contract at the close of 30/09/2026 is strictly > €45,00/MWh. On 30/9 the front-month is the November 2026 delivery contract (October expires ~2 business days before the start of delivery): the criterion therefore applies to a winter contract with a seasonal premium. Binary resolution on a single daily settlement (not an average, not intraday); source: ICE/tradingeconomics settlement.

Base rate: From €58,9 (17/7) a drop of >23% in ~10 weeks would be needed to resolve NO. The two 2026 de-escalation precedents (8/4 → €42,90; 22/6 → €42,83) show that the market can fall below 45 within weeks on a credible truce, but only marginally below; historically (TTF time series) autumns with below-average storage and CONTESTED marginal supply (2021 regime, not the 2018 glut) see prices rise v

Market-implied (at lock): Nov-26 contract (the one the question resolves on) at €56,48/MWh on 18/7/2026 intraday, +2,22 d/d, 52-week range 26,28-69,00, monthly low 40,09, +35% m/m [https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGX26]. Continuous front-month (Aug-26) €58,91 settlement 17/7, +7,28% d/d, +45,4% m/m, +75,3% y/y [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas]. Henry Hub $2,92/MMBtu 17/7 (-9,8% m/m, injections above expectations, Freeport under maintenance) [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas]. JKM $19,93/MMBtu 16/7 (+18,5% d/d on attacks on LNG carriers near Hormuz) [tradingeconomics.com/com

Frozen entry: TTF front-month (Ago-26) €58,91/MWh, settlement 17/7/2026, fetched 18/7/2026 ~morning CET from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas. Resolving contract Nov-26 (TGX26, ICE Endex) €56,48/MWh intraday 18/7/2026 from https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/TGX26. Cross-references: Henry Hub $2,92/MMBtu (17/7), JKM $19,93/MMBtu (16/7). Threshold: €45,00; distance from the resolving contract: -20,3%.

In favour:

• TTF €58,91/MWh on 17/7 (+45% m/m, +75% y/y): a >23% crash is needed to resolve NO [mercato/gas-cluster-ttf-hh-psv-lug26]
• EU storage 53,1% vs 67,5-75% norm (gap -16/-22pp); projection ~81% at 1/11, 90% 'well out of reach': buffer absent, winter premium sustained [gas/oggettivo/stoccaggi-flussi-lug26]
• Qatar: -17% export capacity (12,8 Mt/a, 3-5 year repairs on 2 trains), ramp-up frozen on 9/7; Energy Aspects: Qatar in Europe not before early Q4-26 even with the Strait reopened (demining, P&I, weeks without incidents)
• Structural pro-Asia JKM-TTF spread: Europe at ~42% of US cargoes (first time <50% since Jul 2024), China +55% vs April; Europe must beat the Asian price to fill up
• 2021 regime and not 2018: contested marginal LNG supply, not a glut — the historical discriminant for an expensive winter [storia/serie-storiche-gas-ttf-henry-hub]

Against:

• The threshold has ALREADY been broken twice during de-escalation: €42,90 after the 8/4 truce (with transits still at zero — the market prices the expected risk, not the flows) and €42,83 on 22/6 post-MoU: a credible truce is enough, not physical normalization
• Goldman 2H26 at €41 and the forward curve below spot: the June sell-side consensus saw a return below 45 with normalization
• Kpler prices 'a gradual recovery of Middle Eastern LNG exports by summer' with cheaper cargoes for Europe in September-October; chokepoint base rate: never fully closed, only partial and time-limited interdictions [storia/chiusure-chokepoint]
• Henry Hub -9,8% m/m and US inventories +6,6% above average: molecules are not scarce in the world, the problem is relative price + chokepoint, two things that dissolve quickly if the truce holds
• New US export capacity ~2,4 Bcf/d expected Apr-Dec 2026 and Freeport back from late August: Atlantic supply rising toward September

Literal criterion: Resolves YES if the aggregate EU fill level (AGSI+/GIE) on 01/11/2026 is ≥80,0%. Source: AGSI+ (agsi.gie.eu) or official ACER re-reading.

How we read it: Resolves YES if the aggregate fill level of EU storage (AGSI+/GIE data, or official ACER re-reading) on 1 November 2026 is greater than or equal to 80,0% — a literal threshold on the EU aggregate, with no national flexibility nor relaxed targets: only the AGSI+ figure of 1/11 counts

Base rate: Historically (AGSI era, 2011-2025) EU fill on 1/11 is ≥80% in ~85% of years (exception: 2021 at 77%); but conditioning on "a summer with storage 15+ pp below norm in mid-July" the precedents (2021, and by contrast 2018) say the recovery depends on the elasticity of marginal LNG supply: honest conditional base rate ~40-50%

Market-implied (at lock): No direct market on P(storage≥80%). Proxy at 17-18/7/2026: TTF front-month €57,49/MWh close 17/7 (+4,70% d/d, +41,86% m/m, +71,13% y/y; highest in ~4 months) with analyst expectations €51,34 at end of quarter and €61,10 at 12 months — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas; alternative quotes TTF C1 €54,995 (delayed) https://www.investing.com/commodities/dutch-ttf-gas-c1-futures and TTF $18,40/MMBtu on 16/7 (NYMEX via MacroMicro). JKM $19,93/MMBtu on 16/7 (+18,5% d/d, +26% m/m) https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/liquefied-natural-gas-japan-korea, ~$18,75 on https://lngpriceindex.c

Frozen entry: ENTRY SNAPSHOT 2026-07-18: (1) EU storage 53,1% full as of 18/7/2026, deficit -21,9 pp vs 5-year norm 75,0%, 7-day injections 2.460 GWh/d (≈0,215 pp/d), absolute deficit ~240,9 TWh — EnergyRiskIQ on AGSI+ https://energyriskiq.com/gas-storage-levels-in-europe; GEF confirmation: 51,8% (586,11 TWh) at 12/7, projection ~81% at 1/11 over a 22-day window +0,26 pp/d https://global-energy-flow.com/storage/trajectory/ (direct AGSI+ https://agsi.gie.eu not readable without an API key). (2) TTF front-month €57,49/MWh clo

In favour:

• EU 53,1% on 17-18/7/2026 (EnergyRiskIQ on AGSI+); +26,9 pp are needed in 106 days = +0,254 pp/d, exactly between the 22-day pace (+0,26) and the recent one (+0,19)
• GEF (12/7) projects ~81% at 1/11 and calls 80% 'roughly on track' — but over a short window and with a linear extrapolation that ignores the seasonal deceleration of injections in Sep-Oct
• EU LNG imports in July 6,90 Mt, lowest since September 2024 (vs 8,72 Mt Jul 2025); ACER: 80% requires 2025-type volumes — current flows are BELOW that threshold
• Qatar: ramp-up frozen since 9/7 after the attack on Al Rekayyat; Freeport -2,4 Bcf/d until late August; JKM-TTF spread +$2,62/+$4,14 pro-Asia diverts US cargoes (Europe ~42% in June, first time <50% since Jul 2024)
• Pivot: US-Iran MoU expiry in mid-August — if Hormuz reopens, Qatar has a stated plan of 50%/80% capacity in 1-2 months and Kpler expects cheaper cargoes for Europe in Sep-Oct; the 2018 precedent shows that with free-flowing LNG a record refill is possible

Against:

• Against YES: the recent pace ~0,19 pp/d projects only ~73%; absolute deficit 158 TWh, ~22% wider than the decade average; injections physiologically decelerate from September; EnergyRiskIQ keeps a risk score of 53/100 'ELEVATED'
• Against NO: the GEF projection ~81% is the only aggregate quantitative estimate available and says on-track; the Commission has already bent the rule (80% 'in difficult conditions', flexible floor Reg. 2025/1733) signaling political pressure to hit at least 80%; Italy is already at 71,3%
• Measurement uncertainty: the seasonal norm itself is CONTESTED (67,5% GEF vs 75% ERIQ) and the trough 28-37% unresolved — secondary trackers diverge, primary AGSI+ not re-read (confidence 0,65 declared by the source page)
• The forecast is blind to the forwards: I don't know whether the market is already pricing a reopening or an escalation in mid-August — my P(de-escalation)~55% is a judgment on the ceasefire/chokepoint base rate (never fully closed, time-limited interdictions), not on market odds

Literal criterion: Resolves YES if on ANY day by 31/08/2026 the TTF front-month trades or closes ≥ €65,00/MWh (intraday included if documented by a reliable source).

How we read it: Resolves YES if on any day by 31/08/2026 the TTF front-month contract trades or closes at a price greater than or equal to €65,00/MWh, including an intraday touch provided it is documented by a reliable source; a single occurrence is enough, no persistence nor a close above the threshold is required.

Base rate: Barrier-touch at +10% from the current level (€58,91 on 17/7) over 44 days with the realized volatility of this regime (days of ±7%, +45% m/m) ≈ 0,65-0,70 at zero drift; regime precedent: in the March 2026 episode with a similar Hormuz shock TTF exceeded €60 and touched ~€70. Auxiliary historical base rate: below-average storage = a necessary but not sufficient condition for high prices — the discrim

Market-implied (at lock): TTF front-month €58,91/MWh at close 17/7/2026 (+7,28% d/d, +45,4% m/m, +75,3% y/y): the €65 threshold is +10,3% away with ~30 trading days; with regime realized vol (±5-7%/d) the implied touch at zero drift is ~0,65-0,70 [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas]. JKM $19,93/MMBtu on 16/7 (+18,54% d/d, +26% m/m), Sep-26 settle $19,925: parity/premium vs TTF, Asia competing for cargoes [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/liquefied-natural-gas-japan-korea]. Trading Economics model forecast end of quarter €51,34 (mean reversion expected, but it's a model not the curve). No secur

Frozen entry: TTF front-month (Aug-26): €58,91/MWh, Friday settle 17/07/2026 (+7,28% d/d, +45,36% m/m), source https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas fetched on 18/07/2026 (Saturday, market closed — this is the last available price and the entry snapshot). Frozen ancillaries: JKM $19,93/MMBtu (16/7, +18,54% d/d, source https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/liquefied-natural-gas-japan-korea); next front-month Aug-26 settlement/expiry: ~29-30/07/2026 (ICE/CME).

In favour:

• TTF €58,91/MWh on 17/7 (+7,28% day, +29% MTD, +45% m/m): the €65 threshold is only +10,3% away with 44 days and an intraday criterion [mercato/gas-cluster-ttf-hh-psv-lug26]
• US-Iran MoU expiry (60-day safe passage) in mid-August, WITHIN the window: a known binary catalyst; no transit by expiry => TTF above €55 structural [fonte/mou-cessate-fuoco-iran]
• Qatar: ramp-up frozen on 9/7 after the attack on Al Rekayyat (7/7), total maritime suspension notice on 13/7; JMIC at severe [gas/oggettivo/stoccaggi-flussi-lug26]
• EU storage 53,1% vs 67,5-75% norm (gap 16-22pp), injections ~2.460 GWh/d vs ~3.829 needed for 90%; EU LNG imports July 6,90 Mt, lowest since Sep-2024
• Pro-Asia JKM-TTF spread (+$2,62 on 18/7, +$4,14 June average): Europe at ~42% of US cargoes, first time <50% since Jul-2024; Freeport -2,4 Bcf/d until late August

Against:

• Precedent 8/4/2026: a two-week truce => TTF -20% to €42,90 with transits still at zero - the market prices the expected risk, not the flows; a credible de-escalation deflates the premium before €65
• Kpler (Pinto via Euronews): the market prices a gradual recovery of Middle Eastern LNG exports by summer, cheaper cargoes Sep-Oct; a possible extension of the MoU
• Henry Hub $2,92 (-9,8% m/m), US inventories +6,6% above average: global molecules are not scarce - a basin/chokepoint crisis, not a scarcity one, therefore quickly reversible
• Qatar has declared a ramp of 50% in 1 month / 80% in 2 months from reopening; new US LNG capacity ~2,4 Bcf/d arriving Apr-Dec 2026
• GEF projection ~81% fill at 1/11 (above the relaxed 80% target): the 'winter already lost' narrative is contradicted by the injection pace

Literal criterion: Resolves YES if the NYMEX Henry Hub front-month settlement on 30/09/2026 is > $4,00/MMBtu.

How we read it: Resolves YES only if the official NYMEX settlement of the Henry Hub front-month contract (at 30/9/2026 = November contract, October having expired ~27-28/9) at the close of 30 September 2026 is strictly greater than $4,00/MMBtu; a settlement exactly at $4,00 or lower resolves NO

Base rate: ~13-15%: in the post-shale period (2010-2025) the front-month HH at the end of September has closed above $4 in only ~2 years out of 15 (2021, 2022), both with below-average inventories and rising export demand — conditions opposite to the current ones

Market-implied (at lock): NYMEX HH forward curve on 17/07/2026 (Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts, confirmed by https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGX26): Aug26 $2,911, Sep26 $2,876, Oct26 $2,905, Nov26 (NGX26, resolving contract) $3,098 (+0,039), Dec26 $3,735, Jan27 $4,160. The market prices NGX26 29% below the $4,00 threshold 74 days from resolution; implied lognormal probability of a settlement >$4 at 30/9 with vol 45-65%: ~9-15% (center ~12%). NGX26 52-week range: 3,038-4,642. Context: TTF ~€54,5/MWh on 17/7 (highest in 3+ months, https://tradingeconomics.com/c

Frozen entry: NGX26 (Henry Hub November 2026, the contract that resolves the question): $3,098/MMBtu (+0,039), quotes of the 17/07/2026 close (fetch 18/07/2026), concordant sources: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGX26 and https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts. Current front-month Aug26: $2,911. Distance from the threshold: NGX26 must gain +29,1% by the settlement of 30/09/2026.

In favour:

• HH $2,92/MMBtu on 17/7/2026, -9,8% on the month and -18,2% y/y (TradingEconomics via mercato/gas-cluster-ttf-hh-psv-lug26): +37% would be needed in 10 weeks through the shoulder season
• US inventories +6,6% above the 5-year average as of 3/7 with a build of +41 Bcf; Lower-48 production at a record 110,2 Bcf/d: bearish domestic fundamentals
• The bullish channel (European hunger for LNG with EU storage at 53% vs 67-75% norm) is capped by the export bottleneck: terminals at 94% utilization and Freeport down (2,4 Bcf/d) until late August — the gas stays trapped in America (Freeport 2022 mechanics: HH falls when exports choke, the 'trapped gas' thesis of Pieri/Energy Rogue)
• The cluster defines HH as the negative control of the Hormuz shock: HH -9% since 28/2 while TTF +35% and JKM +51% — the 2026 crisis is an Atlantic-Asian basin one, not global
• Time series: weather shocks on HH are violent but brief (Uri 2021); without a strategic domestic supply shock, HH in an inventory surplus stays in the $2-3.5 range

Against:

• At 30/9 the front-month is the November contract, which incorporates a winter premium and trades structurally above spot (seasonal contango)
• Freeport's return in late August (+2,4 Bcf/d) plus new LNG capacity ramping Apr-Dec 2026 (~2,4 Bcf/d) add export demand right in Q3-Q4: a possible squeeze on autumn balances
• A Europe 16-22pp below the storage norm pays record premiums (JKM $20,98): every MMBtu of new US export capacity is absorbed immediately, and the market could price in advance the tense winter on the November contract
• Hurricane risk in the Gulf in August-September and possible extreme heat compressing weekly builds
• In 2021 HH went from ~$2,9 to >$5 between July and end of September: the precedent of a rapid repricing exists, even if it started from below-average inventories

Literal criterion: Resolves YES if credible reporting (Kpler/Bloomberg/Reuters) documents Qatar LNG exports ≥80% of the pre-28-February level by 31/10/2026. Ties to the ramp-up declared by al-Kaabi (~80% within 2 months of safe passage).

How we read it: Resolves YES only if credible reporting (Kpler/Bloomberg/Reuters) documents that Qatar's LNG exports reach >=80% of the pre-28-February-2026 level by 31 October 2026. The announcement of a reopening or the intention to ramp is not enough: the measured flow is required. Implicit constraint: given the ramp declared by al-Kaabi (~80% in ~2 months from safe passage), safe passage must materialize by ~end of August 2026.

Base rate: Chokepoint: 0 total closures of Hormuz in 40+ years, typical interdictions weeks-months ([[storia/chiusure-chokepoint]]) → reopening by autumn plausible (~40-50%). But young truces without a guarantor are on the fragile branch (recovery 20-50%, high early risk, [[storia/base-rate-cessate-fuoco]]) and real LNG ramp-ups measure in months, not press releases (Golden Pass: 12-18 months to full rate; al-Kaabi s

Market-implied (at lock): The gas curve does NOT price Qatari normalization by October: TTF 58,91 EUR/MWh (close 17 Jul 2026, +7,28% on the day, +45% on the month, +75% y/y, +29% in July; https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas) with TradingEconomics forecast end-Q3 at 51,34 and 12 months at 61,10 EUR/MWh — the long end above 50 vs ~33 a year ago implies the absence of Qatar returning to 80% in autumn. JKM 19,93 $/MMBtu (16 Jul, +18,5% on the day, +63,6% y/y; https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/liquefied-natural-gas-japan-korea). Kpler (12 Jul): 6 active trains = 34,7 Mtpa nameplate out of 77 (~45%), z

Frozen entry: SNAPSHOT 2026-07-18: TTF front-month 58,91 EUR/MWh (settlement 17 Jul 2026, +2,58 on the day; source fetched https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas). JKM 19,93 USD/MMBtu (16 Jul 2026; https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/liquefied-natural-gas-japan-korea). Qatar physical state at freeze: 6 trains with a thermal signature = 34,7/77 Mtpa (~45%), zero LNG transits at Hormuz since 11 Jul, 2 gas carriers berthed (Al Rayyan, Al Samriya), loadings continue (Kpler, satellite image 12 J

In favour:

• As of 18 Jul the picture is escalation, not normalization: 8 transits on 16 Jul vs 120-140 pre-war, attacks on 7 and 14 Jul (2 ADNOC tankers hit with 1 dead in the 'protected' Southern corridor), war-risk 3-10% of hull value, US raids for 7 consecutive nights [oggettivo/hormuz-traffico-lug26]
• Qatari LNG outflow at ZERO since 5 Jul; on 9 Jul QatarEnergy put Ras Laffan 'at the minimum for safety' and suspended increase plans — pause still in force as of 17 Jul (TradingEconomics) [gas/voci/politici-ufficiali-lug26]
• Arithmetic of the criterion: al-Kaabi (19 Mar) declares 17% of export capacity (12,8 Mtpa, 2 trains out of 14 + GTL) out of service for 3-5 years → physical ceiling ~83% of the pre-28-Feb: the >=80% criterion requires an almost perfect ramp of the surviving capacity, zero margin
• Timing: al-Kaabi (13 May) says '2-3 months MINIMUM' from reopening to renormalize, with 10 loaded gas carriers trapped inside and 118 empty outside; for >=80% by 31/10 safe passage is needed by ~end of August, while the MoU's 60-day window expires in mid-August with the truce already broken (8 Jul) and Trump on 'deal or finish the job'
• Ras Laffan and Mesaieed shut since 2 March, force majeure since 4 March: this is not a short pause but a 4+ month halt, and TTF at 58,91 EUR/MWh (+75% y/y) prices exactly the absence of normalization [gas/fisica-catena-lng]

Against:

• Chokepoint base rate strongly mean-reverting: Hormuz has never been fully closed, the modal outcome is selective time-limited interdiction — a de-escalation in August (rounds in Qatar, an Omani corridor, a UN resolution backed by ~2/3 of countries) is a real scenario, not a tail one
• The 17% of destroyed capacity is a figure declared by al-Kaabi, not audited, with an interest in maximizing perceived damage: if overstated, the achievable ceiling rises above 83% and the 80% criterion becomes less tight
• Al-Kaabi himself declared the ramp ~80% in ~2 months from safe passage: if a deal arrives at the MoU expiry (mid-August) with demining already partly done (par.5: 30 days), the window to 31/10 is technically sufficient
• Enormous and symmetric economic interest in reopening: Qatar loses ~$20 bn/year, China (its top destination) and Europe are pushing; even Iran only monetizes with the Strait open